Inflation seen falling below 4% in February for first time in six months

India's consumer inflation for February is anticipated to have fallen below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4.0% for the first time in six months, driven by a moderation in food price increases, according to sources poll released on March 10.

The influx of fresh winter produce into markets over recent months has contributed to a consistent slowdown in the price increases of food items, which account for nearly half of the inflation basket.

This development provides a welcome relief from the supply chain disruptions experienced last year when erratic monsoons and severe heat waves caused food prices to surge, often by double digits.

According to a poll conducted among 45 economists between March 4 and March 10 projected that inflation, as indicated by the annual change in the consumer price index, dropped to 3.98% in February, down from 4.31% in January.

The forecasts for this data, which is set to be released on March 12 at 1030 GMT, ranged from 3.40% to 4.65%, with nearly 70% of respondents expecting the figure to be at or below the RBI's medium-term target of 4.0%.