Experts: Delhi to witness sharp increase in COVID-19 cases, peak likely in Feb

With the number of fresh COVID-19 cases going up by 10 times from what it was at the beginning of the month in Delhi, experts on Monday said the number of cases will see an increase in the next couple of months due to the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, with the peak likely to be attained in February.

Delhi reported 290 fresh Covid cases on Sunday with a positivity rate of 0.55 per cent, while the number of new cases and the positivity rate rose to 331 and 0.68 per cent respectively on Monday.

The national capital reported 39 fresh cases of the infection with a positivity rate of 0.07 per cent on December 1. The following day, the positivity rate had declined to 0.06 per cent, while the number of fresh cases was 41.

Between December 9 and December 15, Delhi logged 48 daily cases on an average, which rose to 95 between December 16 and December 22. According to official data, it was a rise of 49.47 per cent on a weekly basis.

Epidemiologist Giridhar R Babu said, "It is very unlikely that the number of cases has risen due to the festive season because in that case, the impact would have been seen 14 days after Diwali in November and the number of cases would have risen by November-end. The number is rising due to the Omicron variant, which is highly transmissible. The cases will see a rapid ascent and a rapid descent and the peak is likely to come between mid-January and mid-February."

Dr Jugal Kishore, the head of the community medicine department at the Safdarjung hospital, said the number of coronavirus cases and the positivity rate are bound to increase, but will not translate into mortality.

The senior doctor also said till the time the panic button is not pressed and the situation is managed well, there will not be any issue.

Babu said those who have not been vaccinated and have not been infected with the virus are more susceptible and it is that population that needs to be looked after.

Kishore echoed similar views and said while vaccination does not mean one would not contract the infection, it certainly reduces the severity of the infection.