Nibri reaches 95.7, indicates sharp recovery in economic activity

The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (Nibri) has reached 95.7 in the week ending July 11, indicating a sharp recovery in economic activity; a value of 100 captures the pre-pandemic level. The latest Nibri value suggests that economic activity has seen a V-shaped recovery with the removal of restrictions which were put in place after the second wave of Covid-19 infections.

India imposed a 68-day long hard lockdown beginning March 25, 2020 to prevent the spread of Covid-19 infections. By then, Covid-19 had taken a toll on activity – Nibri was 82.9 in the week ending March 22, 2020. The index touched an all-time low of 44.7 in the week ending April, 26, 2020 and then started a gradual recovery. It was only in December 2020 that Nibri crossed the 90-mark before reaching a post-first-wave peak of 99.3 in the week ending February 23.

Thereafter, it started falling gradually as the infection curve reversed its trajectory again. As restrictions were re-imposed to deal with the surge in cases in the second wave, Nibri fell to 60.3 in the week ending May 23. The second wave of Covid-19 infections peaked in India on May 9. The fact that Nibri has gained 35.4 points in the last seven weeks to reach 95.7 shows that economic activity has recovered sharply with the removal of restrictions.