India likely to have a normal monsoon this year, predicts IMD

India is
likely to have a normal monsoon this year, the India Meteorological Department
(IMD) said on Wednesday, in news that will cheer up farmers suffering amid the
Covid-19 lockdown.

“We will
have a normal monsoon this year. Quantitatively the monsoon rainfall during the
monsoon season 2020 is expected to be 100% of its long period average with an
error of +5 or -5% due to model error,” Madhavan Rajeevan, the secretary with
the ministry of earth sciences (MoES), said during a press briefing.

In its first
stage Long Range Forecast (LRF) for south-west monsoon season (June-September)
rainfall, the weather bureau also gave the dates of onset in several places.

The date for
the onset of monsoon in Kerala remains the same and will arrive on June 1, the
official said. The date for Chennai will be June 4, Panjim June 7, Hyderabad
June 8, Pune 10 and Mumbai 11.

The monsoon
will reach the national capital on June 27.

LRF is the
operational monsoon season forecast issued by the weather department from June
to September for the entire country. It does not include regional level
rainfall or specify quantum rainfall for the forecast period

The MeT
department issues LRF in two stages—first stage forecast in April and the
second one is issued in June.

These forecasts are issued using Statistical Ensemble
Forecasting System (SEFS) and dynamical coupled ocean-atmospheric models.

India receives about 70% of its annual rainfall during the
monsoon that generally begins in June before starting to retreat by September.

The monsoon rainfall is crucial to rice, wheat, sugarcane and
oilseeds cultivation in the country, where farming accounts for about 15% of
the economy and employs over half of its people.