After high decibel drama for around 2.5 days, finally a time to rejoice for Congress.
Teary eyed, BS Yedyurappa resigned from the Chief ministerial post with an emotional speech. HD Kumaraswamy had been invited to take the oath as CM of Karnataka. The congress and other regional parties are ecstatic as the JD(S) and Congress coalition are going to form government in Karnataka. Congress leaders and supporters are celebrating as Rahul X.Y version has stopped the Modi juggernaut and are able to be a part of the government in Karnataka. Considering the losses in multiple states, this win is indeed a time to rejoice for Congress.
As expected, the celebrations are on, but wait, are we missing something?
Congress was in complete majority in 2013 Assembly elections:
Not only they have lost the majority, but they are not even the largest party now in Karnataka. From 122 seats obtained in 2013 legislative assembly, they have come down to 78. As a matter of fact, even the JD(S) tally has come down from 40 to 38. In 2008 assembly election when BJP came to power, the congress had obtained 80 seats. So, the results in 2018 are even worse than 2008, even though they had played their Communal card to get the Lingayat votes.
So, is it really a time to rejoice for Congress?
In 2013 Assembly elections, the percentage of votes garnered by Congress was 36.6 %, this time it has risen to 38%. BJP being the single largest party has obtained 36.2%. This stat would bring a sense of relief for Congress.
However, there are some other stats as well.
In 2013 Assembly elections, BJP and JD(S) had garnered 19.9% and 20.2% votes respectively. For BJP it is now raised to 36.2% and JD(S) is reduced to 18.3% despite their coalition with BSP. So, it looks like the rise of 1.2% for congress comes from the people who had previously voted for JD(S).
In 2018 Lok Sabha elections, BJP and Congress had garnered 43 and 40% votes respectively. The Vote percentage have gone down for both the national parties.
JD(S) being the beneficiary here, its percentage is raided from 11 to 18.3%.
So, if you compare with Lok Sabha elections the vote share percentage of congress has fallen. Further, if you compare with 2013 Assembly elections the seats have reduced drastically.
Time to rejoice?
Both the parties in the Coalition have fared poorly compared to the last assembly elections. However, in the fight of the political heavyweights, Dev Gowda’s JD(S) has been the beneficiary. They were preparing themselves to become a kingmaker but suddenly they find themselves as a King.
This time the Congress acted quick unlike Goa and Manipur, however they tend to have overacted. Being a National party who was ruling in Karnataka, they have ended up giving unconditional support to a regional party who has half number of seats than them.
Referring to the facts and stats, the Congress can decide whether it is a time to Rejoice or Ponder. They can still prefer to celebrate and pretend that they have won but factually, the writing is on the wall.