On December 4, cyclone Jawad is expected to hit the east coast

The first post-monsoon cyclone, Jawad, is expected to form over the central Bay of Bengal on December 3 at a speed of 89-117kmph, causing torrential rain and infrastructural damage, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Jawad's exact route via Odisha and India's east coast is still unknown.

In May, Cyclone Amphan ripped over West Bengal, destroying infrastructure and agriculture. Over 13 million people were affected, and over 1.5 million homes were damaged. Before Amphan made landfall, about three million people were evacuated.

On Tuesday morning, a low-pressure region over southern Thailand and the surrounding area was expected to emerge into the Andaman Sea over the next 12 hours. By December 2, it was forecast to travel west-northwestwards, becoming a depression over the southeast and adjacent east-central Bay of Bengal. During the next 24 hours, it was expected to build into cyclonic storm Jawad over the central Bay of Bengal, proceed northwestwards to intensify further, and hit the north Andhra Pradesh-Odisha beaches on December 4.

A cyclonic circulation lies over the southeast Arabian Sea and surrounding Maldives-Lakshadweep areas, with a trough (line of low pressure) flowing from it to the east-central Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast at mean sea level.

Around Wednesday, a low-pressure area is expected to emerge over the east central Arabian Sea, off the coast of Maharashtra. From Tuesday night, a new active western disturbance in the form of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies is expected to affect northwest and adjacent Central India, interacting with lower-level troughs in the easterlies. On December 1, widespread rain or thunderstorms with isolated heavy to very heavy rains are likely in Gujarat as a result of this interaction. Heavy rain was forecast for Gujarat on Thursday, as well as the north Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra on Wednesday. Thunderstorms and lightning are expected in the area, with isolated hailstorms possible.

On Wednesday and Thursday, rain, thunderstorms, and lightning were expected in West Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Haryana, and West Uttar Pradesh. In Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit and Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh, widespread rainfall or snowfall with isolated thunderstorms/lightning was expected until December 3.

In November, there were three depressions and at least three low-pressure systems across the Bay of Bengal, bringing widespread and heavy rainfall to Peninsular India. Flooding was caused by the rainfall in regions of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Low-pressure systems occurred mostly as a result of above-normal temperatures in the Indian Ocean's north equatorial region.

The intertropical convergence zone, also known as the near-equatorial trough, is a zone of wind convergence that runs from the southern Bay of Bengal to the northwest Pacific and is generally not very active during this season. "It's possible that this is due to the warm sea surface temperatures. As a result, convective activity is high this month, and cyclonic vortices are developing in greater numbers. Jawad will be a severe cyclone once it forms, but we can't predict whether it will cross or skirt the east coast right now," said Sunitha Devi, IMD's cyclone expert.

The sea surface temperature over the north equatorial Indian ocean has been higher than normal in recent months, according to DS Pai, who leads IMD Pune's Climate Research and Services.  "Easterly waves are also coming to the Indian Ocean region from the northwest Pacific. These are then forming into low-pressure systems over the Indian Ocean." Pai went on to say that a highly warm Indian Ocean could be due to intra-seasonal variability as well as a climate crisis.

Jawad is expected to bring heavy to extremely heavy rain to isolated areas along the coast of Odisha. In neighbouring interior areas of Odisha, coastal districts of West Bengal, and north coastal Andhra Pradesh, heavy to very heavy rainfall was likely at isolated locations.