Moody's cuts India 2022 growth forecast on high oil prices to 9.1%

Moody's Investors Service on Thursday revised its India's GDP forecast down to 9.1 per cent from 9.5 per cent for 2022. As per Global Macro Outlook 2022-23 (March 2022 updated), India is particularly vulnerable to high oil prices given that it is a large importer of crude oil.

Lately, the geo political crisis involving Russia and Ukraine have pushed Brent crude oil price higher.

Currently, Russia is the third largest producer of crude oil in the world. For India, the trend of high crude price is alarming since it imports nearly 85 per cent of its needs.

Besides, the cascading effect of higher fuel cost will trigger a general inflationary trend.

On the other hand, the March update pointed out that India's agricultural exports will benefit in the short term.

"Because India is a surplus producer of grain, agricultural exports will benefit in the short term from high prevailing prices.